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WEEKLY NEWSLETTER (FX-INDICES-COMMODITIES)

WEEKLY NEWSLETTER (FX-INDICES-COMMODITIES)
by admin

22/06/2020

 

General Comment

Increased concerns due to fears of a second lockdown along with economic consequences, already visible, create a picture of uncertainty in the markets. Investors & traders favoured USD and JPY as riskoff selections. The stock markets are still affected from the huge offered liquidity and continued bullishly while gold and oil had important profits as well. In the current week, theres a big interest in PMIs and a series of speeches from ECB officers.

 

EURUSD

Bearish was the last week for EURUSD, which opened at 1.1234 and closed at1.1177. After last Monday’s bulls, all the rest days of the week were clearly bearish, revealing the affinity of the markets to USD. The price area of 1.1170 – 1.1180 is a strong support and there’s already a reaction above 1.12 but we can see a development of a downtrend picture for the pair after the euphoria in Europe for the extended support economic package that had brought EURUSD above 1.14. Since we cannot exclude prices in the short term, even close to 1.10 we’ll try some sell positions this week. Below 1.1170 we may increase the size.

 

GBPUSD

Strong bearish trends we saw for GBPUSD since last week opened above 1.25 and closed at 1.2348. The support package from BoE is not judged to be efficient enough by the markets and the Brexit negotiations seem stale too. This week is dominated by PMI announcements for both USA and UK but since the recent strengthening of USD increases the probability for testing the support of 1.22, we’ll try sell positions for the current week.

 

USDJPY

There was a correction continuation for USDJPY last week. The pair opened at 107.30 and closed at 106.87. The 10-year US treasury yield seem to be stabilized around 0.70% and the pair seems to have sideways movements as well but both USD and JPY are the investors’ safe choices in this period. Ahead, there is the important support of 106.50 but the price zone between 107 and 108 seems to be fair for the market in the latest weeks. Most likely, the consolidations will carry on so range strategy is maybe the best option for this week.

 

EURJPY

It was the second in a row week of dropping for EURJPY which opened at 120.60 and closed at 119.45, significantly lower than the psychological level/milestone price of 120. Given the JPY strength and the recent EUR weakness we may see more corrections, to the price area of 118. On the contrary, a recovery and a solid bullish breakout of 120, may confirm some hopes for bulls. First choice is to open sell positions though.

 

EURGBP

Given the UK lockdown issues and the weakness of GBP, EURGBP managed to exceed 0.90 last week by closing at 0.9050. Of course, there is a probability of extending the uptrend, up to 0.92 but possible turbulences in EU (regarding the help package agreement) are able to bring the pair below 0.90 again. We may try sell positions this week.

 

USDCAD

Consolidative trends for USDCAD last week with a weekly close at 1.3607, just 9 pips above the weekly open. The economic results that announced in Canada were nor positive at all. The Retail Sales tumbled by 26.4% but the increased oil prices kept a balance for the pair. USD is getting stronger but any possible oil prices stabilization is able to lead the pair even to the price area of 1.3740 which is the next major resistance. This will be the major target for our buy positions this week.

 

USDCHF

Sideways to bullish was last week’s trend for USDCHF. The Friday’s close was at 0.9523 and the volatility was very low. The safety that release both USD and CHF create balance conditions for the pair but USD seems to have more room and potential and as long as it remains above 0.95, there’s a significant probability for a certain recovery. We prefer buy positions this week.

 

AUDUSD

Consolidations on AUDUSD last week since the weekly close on Friday was at 0.6834, just 5 pips below the Monday’s open price. Most of economic announcements from Australia and China were below expectations and early this week, at PBOC session, the Chinese bank kept the Interest Rates unchanged at 3.85%. Currently, the pair is recovering at 0.6870 but the risk mood will dominate this week as well: optimism and risk-on mood will lead the pair to the price area of 0.70 again but in the opposite case, we may see extended correction to the support of 0.66. Giving more chances to the second option, we’ll open sell positions for the current week.

 

SP500

Return to the profits for SP500 after a correction break. SP500 closed at 3,058 points, about 0.76% higher. The huge liquidity and the delirious rally that is taking place since the end of March, develops attractive conditions for the buyers. Of course, we must not forget that things in the real economy are not so positive. For instance, Apple is about to close some stores in USA in the areas of increased coronavirus cases. The futures of the Index in the beginning of the week are moving in a positive area but corrections are not out of scope. Sideways movements and corrections will drive sell positions for us this week.

 

DAX30

Marginally bullish week for DAX30 which closed at 12,187 points and profits close to 1.25%. The stock markets are a very good option nowadays while Interest Rates and Bonds yields are very low but maybe a correction is close at hand. Short is our weekly selection.

 

FTSE100

It was a bullish week for FTSE100 which managed to surpass 6,200 points, performing profits that touched 1%. The futures of the Index are in a positive area already but the UK economy’s issues regarding lockdown and Brexit are still here so we’ll try short positions.

 

Gold

Important profits for gold last week with a weekly close price at $1,755, about 1% higher. The current week has opened with prices above $1,760 and this fact shows that the bullish momentum of gold still remains. We need to see if this breakout is able to signify a course for the price area of $1,800 which is the highest price since the autumn of 2012 or if we’ll see a retracement into the last weeks’ confirmed channel between $1,685 and $1,760. Giving more chances to the second option, we’ll try short positions this week.

 

US Oil

Strongly bullish week for oil prices with spot price close price at $15.57 (profits more than 10%) and the July futures weekly close price, touching the area of $40. The production cuts from the OPEC countries along with the production reduction in USA create expectations for glut elimination. On the other hand, this dogged rise develops temporary overbought conditions and many buyers could liquidate and take the profit. The production cut brings new levels of balance in the oil prices but it takes a significant increase in demand as well, otherwise a further price rise will be limited. Another important parameter is the so-called hurricane season, which may cause price drop as well. We’ll try low-risk short positions this week.

 

Bitcoin

Slightly bearish was the last week for Bitcoin which closed at $9,283 with losses like 0.50%. The volatility during the last weeks is extremely low (according to the history of Bitcoin) since there’s an uncertainty regarding the trend. The developed situation will either lead to the bullish breakout of $10,000 along with the crypto investors’ optimism either to a bearish breakout of $8,700 along with the relative concerns and fears. As long as none of the above cases is taking place, the volatility will remain low and the trend direction will be pending. Range strategy is the best option for us currently.

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