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WEEKLY NEWSLETTER (FX-INDICES-COMMODITIES)

WEEKLY NEWSLETTER (FX-INDICES-COMMODITIES)
by admin

15/06/2020

 

General Comment

Markets took a different turn after FED Press Release on last Wednesday. Essentially, nothing new or game changers announced, the Interest Rates remained unchanged and most likely will remain unchanged until 2020 but the Press Release unleashed all the lockdown issues of the US economy. Investors & traders turned into risk-off mood, USD as a safe-haven asset got stronger and the stock markets collapsed. Other results had to do with gold prices rise and oil prices drop, quite reasonable as well. The important announcements of the current week will come mainly from Japan, Australia and UK but it will be critical and important to see if the markets correction will carry or if it was temporary.

 

EURUSD

A marginal correction we saw last week for EURUSD with a weekly open at 1.1294 and a weekly close at 1.1256. This uptrend interruption for the pair, took place after the middle of the week after FOMC and the USD strengthening. EURUSD now has different dynamics and the support at 1.1140 is critical for the uptrend reversal that has started from last May. On the contrary, a bullish breakout of 1.13 again will signal the reinsertion of the pair into the last weeks’ uptrend. Of course, we may see consolidations until the potential buyers and sellers get new and extra fuel for future positions. We will wait until we see a strong movement to a certain direction before we open positions (buy or sell) this week.

 

GBPUSD

Bearish correction for GBPUSD which closed the week at 1.2540, significantly lower than the weekly open price at 1.2670. Strong USD as a low risk choice and the big drop of the UK GDP which surpassed 20%, resulted the heavy pressures on the pair, especially after last Thursday. Due to important UK announcements such as the Unemployment Rate, the Inflation, the Retail Sales and above all the Interest Rates on Thursday, we expect to see a very volatile week. Also, as the time passed by, the probability of a nondeal Brexit between UK and EU increases. We may see new pressures on the pair so we’ll try sell positions with main target the price area of 1.2450.

 

USDJPY

Very important drop for USDJPY (weekly open at 109.55 and weekly close at 107.37) that took back all the important rise that the pair had performed the week before. In the current period, JPY is meant to be more safe choice for the investors than the USD and other important factors are the stock market collapse and the 10-years US treasure yield which is at the press time at 0.67%. If there’s no change to the riskoff mood we may see a further drop to the price area of 106 so we’ll open sell positions this week.

 

EURJPY

Last week closed for EURJPY with an important price drop since the pair opened at 123.68 and closed at 120.86, putting an end to the uptrend of the last four weeks. Although EUR is quite strong lately, the safe character of JPY seems to be even stronger and this will be confirmed if there will be a bearish breakout of 120. Sell positions is our selection for the current week.

 

EURGBP

Bullish was the last week for EURGBP since the pair opened from the price area of 0.89 and closed at 0.8975, cancelling in a sense the previous bearish week and giving new fuel to the uptrend that takes place from end of April. EURGBP has exceeded 0.90 and the uptrend is expected to get stronger so we will open buy positions this week. Many traders already target 0.92.

 

USDCAD

The freefall of USDCAD ended last week since the pair had a bullish reaction from the price area of 1.34 to 1.3583. The strengthening of USD and oil prices drop, helped the pair to recover. The current week is critical enough because a further recovery above 1.37 will increase a lot the probability of the downtrend reverse so we’ll take our chances with buy positions.

 

USDCHF

Bearish was the last week for USDCHF with a weekly open at 0.9607 and a weekly close at 0.9523. Last Friday though was impressively bullish but we need to see a clear breakout of 0.96 in order to have a downtrend reversal high probability. During the last months, USDCHF has a consolidative attitude around 0.97 so we may have a further rise that will enter the pair into this price zone. Having this in mind, we will open buy positions.

 

AUDUSD

Corrective trends we saw last week for AUDUSD with open price at 0.6964 and close price at 0.6869. The pair affected by the strong USD and the stock markets correction but the drop was not that heavy that justifies an uptrend reversal event (at least for the moment). With important announcements from Αυστραλία (RBA and Unemployment Rate) and from China (Industrial Production and Retail Sales), the week will be interesting enough and highly volatile. It takes a solid breakout below 0.6650 in order to have a confirmed downtrend and a possible recovery above 0.69, puts on the table the milestone price of 0.70 again. Although our view is bullish, we will wait for a certain movement upwards before we try buy positions.

 

SP500

Finally, we saw a strongly bearish week for SP500 which closed at 3,035 points, having losses above 5%. The sentiment had changed since last Tuesday but it got worst after FOMC. The messages of the new week are not positive at all since the futures of the Index are below 3,000 points and losses of 3%. It is a critical week ahead because a new correction will bring turbulences and throbs to the markets because the last weeks’ really is a result of a huge liquidity and not of solid macro results and fundamentals. We’ll open short positions this week because a correction to the price area of 2,800 points is possible enough.

 

DAX30

Important losses for DAX30 which closed at 12,036 points, almost 5.7% lower than the weekly open. Current week’s futures have opened 3% lower and significantly below 12,000 so there are serious concerns for a further correction. We’ll try short positions.

 

FTSE100

Very big drop for FTSE100 which closed at 6,142 points and losses that touched 5%. This week opened bearishly as well and the futures of the Index are already below 6,000 points. This fact puts into the test the last period’s uptrend so short positions is our selection for the current week.

 

Gold

Bullish was the last week for gold with a weekly close at $1,738 and profits close to 3%. The consequences of FOMC and the concerns & fears amongst investors, boosted the safe-haven asset gold. Since the mid-April, the gold price is moving into a channel between $1,685 and $1,750 and it takes a significant change to the sentiment and fundamentals before we have an escape. Range strategy with both long & short positions is our selection this week.

 

US Oil

After six bullish weeks in a row, oil had a price drop and the spot price had a weekly close at $14.09 with losses of 1.4%. Last week had started bullishly though after the OPEC agreement for production cut extensions but the global concerns after FED Press Release created fears regarding the demand that dominated. The coronavirus pandemics will be the most critical factor in the next period of time and maybe many oil buyers will liquidate their profits under the fears of a second lockdown. The week has opened with a heavily bearish behaviour and the oil price (spot price) is already below $14. We’ll try some low-risk short positions this week.

 

Bitcoin

Clearly bearish week for Bitcoin which closed at $9,330 with losses like 4.3%. The USD strengthening, the riskoff mood and the ongoing declassification of Bitcoin as a safe alternative investment solution have not allowed the bullish breakout or the maintenance of $10,000. Furthermore, there are many evidences for security issues at cryptos and recently there are many transfers from private wallets to safe exchanges which can be the medium stage before a liquidation. Many sells have already taken place and maybe there are more in the near future. The pressures on Bitcoin may get heavier and if there is a bearish breakout of $8,700, we may witness a free-fall phenomenon. Short positions is our selection for the current week.

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